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  1. Chaos and predictability

    I just learned that April has been designated as Financial Literacy Month. In case you wondered, we owe that designation to our fellow finance professionals across the pond. New such-and-such days and months tend to originate there.

  2. Nice, predictable weakness

    Microsoft had a poor start to this millennium. Over almost 15 years, from Christmas in 1999 to July 2014, total return was a dismal zero.

  3. Annual report 2021

    At the outset of 2021, financial markets had shaken off the shock following the outbreak of the pandemic in the winter/spring of 2020.

  4. Crime and punishment, and rewards

    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continued unabated, with sharply rising numbers of civilian casualties and reports of heinous atrocities. Commodity prices kept climbing higher, on concerns about supply disruptions, and inflationary pressures intensified.

  5. Financial markets and the economy in 2021

    Good news, bad news and real news. In 2021, bouncing back from the depths of the pandemic, we got a lot of good news. But not good enough for the stimulative policies to be pulled back. We also got an indisputable reminder of what really drives financial market returns.

  6. Sustainability report 2021

    One of our obligations as a Swan-labelled fixed income fund is to publish an annual report on the sustainability performance of the fund.

  7. Countervailing forces

    When something dramatic happens, we often end up telling clients to calm down and wait it out. With prices on stocks and corporate bonds plummeting, selling is rarely if ever profitable. This time, however, is a different story.

  8. Russia – what now?

    And so Russia crossed a border – literally – that no one thought any European country would cross in modern times. The Moscow Stock Exchange plummeted, although a major rebound reduced losses, and Western stock markets were in no way untouched. Russia’s invasion came against a backdrop of fears of inflation and rising interest rates, which the stock market does not like either.

  9. Save your tears

    For a lot of investors, January was a month of negative returns. On the back of news that annual US headline inflation had reached 7.0 per cent, fears of persistent inflation stoked visions of painful interest rates hikes. Rates did rise a bit, as did credit spreads. As a result, there was a general decline in the global bond market, both for investment grade and for high yield.

  10. Statement of non-causality

    You’re excused if you feel like celebrating 2021. In financial markets, a lot of people made a lot of money from risky investments like stocks and corporate bonds. Presumably risk-free investments like US Treasuries, or moderately risky investment grade bonds, produced large losses.