Take 2018: Records show that the MSCI World Index lost 7% in local currency. If, instead, November had been the last month of the year in our calendar, we would have seen a positive return of 2% – and a similarly less exuberant return the following year.
As for November 2022, it was a decidedly good month for both stocks and bonds, especially the latter – with global investment-grade bonds delivering approximately 5%. That, of course, is the flip side of interest rate risk, as these are long-duration bonds with fixed coupons. Despite this last sigh of relief, though, they’ve had a sad, sad year, being 16-17% down from the beginning of January.
In local currency, the MSCI World Index returned 5.7%. That’s a nice return indeed, but it’s not that unusual. November 2022 wouldn’t make it into the top 50 months in the history of this index.
However, if you look at the past two months combined, you get an aggregate return of 13.3%. Better returns have only been observed seven times since inception of this index at the outset of the 1970s. In a sense, then, we’ve had two months for the history books, hidden by the simple fact that we seldom settle scores after exactly two months.
To be sure: This is as backward-looking as it gets. I have no idea what’s going to happen in the next month or two. I simply wanted to point out that we have just seen a remarkable autumnal run in the stock market.
Now, please do your best to remember: Do you feel that this performance was mirrored in the media comments and reports this fall?
Historical returns are no guarantee for future returns. Future returns will depend, inter alia, on, market developments, the portfolio manager’s skill, the fund’s risk profile, as well as fees for subscription, management and redemption. Returns may become negative as a result of negative price developments. This is marketing communication.