So much for taking this in stride.
Or maybe not. I'm no expert in virology – nor blackswanology, for that matter (the black swan metaphor represents an unexpected, unforeseeable event of great significance). But I wouldn't challenge claims that the coronavirus is close to being the perfect black swan.
And yet – what's actually lost so far?
No, I won't subject you to the proverbial litany of negative percentages. Instead, here's a list showing the setbacks in terms of months lost, or rather the months to which investors have been set back in assorted markets – give or take some imprecision in volatile markets.
Norway OSEBX: January 2019
FTSE UK: January 2019
ICE BofA Euro HY (B): April 2019
ICE BofA Euro HY: June 2019
DAX Germany: August 2019
MSCI World Index: September 2019
Nikkei 225: September 2019
OMX Stockholm 30: October 2019
S&P 500: October 2019
ICE BofA US High Yield: December 2019
US investment grade: all-time high ...
Of course, things might turn terribly worse. I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen with the spread of the coronavirus, at least no qualified idea. And, as disclaimers go, professed ignorance is no better guarantee of future performance than past performance. I just wanted to point out that so far, the financial unease seems to have been overplayed in the media.
Er, wait a minute ... that's not really news, is it?
Finn Øystein Bergh
Chief Economist & Strategist
Historical returns are no guarantee for future returns. Future returns will depend, inter alia, on, market developments, the portfolio manager’s skill, the fund’s risk profile, as well as fees for subscription, management and redemption. Returns may become negative as a result of negative price developments. This is marketing communication.