News and notifications
News and information about our funds and market commentaries.
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The effect of increasing signage
Sustainable investment is an undisputed growth business. A rough estimate puts the latest number of ESG funds and ETFs globally at somewhere close to 9,000, given a slightly moderated growth rate of 15-20% over the past year. More than 75% of these investment vehicles are based in Europe, representing over €10 trillion in aggregate assets under management.
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Atlantic divide
It seems the US stock market rejoiced at Donald Trump’s presidential election victory. Having already had a stellar year, the S&P 500 rose by an additional 5.9% in November, lifting this year’s total return to more than 28%. In comparison, the STOXX Europe 600 rose by a notably more modest 1.2%, with a total return year to date of 10%.
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Adapting to reality shows
While this is supposed to be a commentary on market developments in October, I have to address what everybody’s talking about these days: the US presidential election. At the time of writing this commentary, on the eve of the election, all available information points to a very close and extremely exciting race. As reality TV goes, it doesn’t get much better.
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Results from election meeting
At the election meeting, held on 31 May 2024, one unitholder representative were re-elected to the board of Pareto Asset Management.
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The unforecastables
At the first sign of increased geopolitical tension, energy prices tend to soar. The Yom Kippur war in 1973 gave us the first oil crisis. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 sent natural gas prices into the atmosphere. And now the Middle East is simmering just below the boiling point. So far, oil prices have risen by a moderate nine per cent and natural gas prices by roughly twice as much from their September lows, but energy experts warn they could go a lot higher.
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Cries of wolf fading – and now that’s a sign of wolf?
As we enter September, the US yield curve is about to disinvert. For 26 months in a row, the yield on 2-year US Treasuries has exceeded the yield on 10-year US Treasuries, producing a negative term spread. Under normal circumstances, the yield curve is supposed to slope upwards, with higher yields on longer-term bonds. This would produce the classical risk premium required to take on the increased risk in longer-dated bonds.
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A Roosevelt moment
July turned out to be a generally pleasant month, with falling interest rates and rising stock prices. The yield on 10-year US government bonds fell by as much as 32 basis points, whereas the MSCI World Index rose by 1.3% in local currency. Somewhat lower commodity prices, oil included, seemed to clear the way for further declines in inflation rates and a more dovish stance from the US Federal Reserve. In the US, where policy rates have yet to be cut, the headline inflation figure fell from 3.3% to 3.0%. In Norway, also waiting for the first cut, it fell from 3.0% to 2.6%.
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Investing in stride
Here’s June 2024 for you: After heavy losses in European elections, French president Emmanuel Macron called for a surprising snap election, causing a spike in French government bond yields. The US announced new tariffs on a wide range of Chinese technology products, leading to retaliatory measures from China two days later. Trade talks broke down and further measures were announced.
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And it's no sacrifice
In April, we hosted an institutional investor conference in Stockholm, with speakers and attendees from seven different countries. The title of the conference was “Pareto improvements in the agile Nordic markets”. Besides the obvious play on our company name, the title may need a bit of explanation for those who did not participate.
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Results from election meeting
At the election meeting, held on 31 May 2024, one unitholder representative were re-elected to the board of Pareto Asset Management.