Denne rapporten er utgitt på engelsk.
At the outset of 2024, interest rates were still the main concern in financial markets, with expectations of rate cuts totalling 125 basis points from the US Federal Reserve and up to 150 basis points from the European Central Bank (ECB). There were also expectations of rate cuts in Norway, albeit more modest – around 50 basis points.
Throughout 2024, inflation rates fell, as expected, clearing the way for rate cuts. By the end of the year, both the Federal Reserve and the ECB had cut their key rates by 100 basis points. The Swedish Riksbank cut as much as 125 basis points (and a further 25 basis points just after year-end), while Norges Bank, as an exception, left its key interest rate unchanged at 4.5%.
Market rates followed suit, but only at the very short end. The yield on 2-year US government bonds hardly budged. And the world’s presumably most important interest rate, the yield on 10-year US government bonds, instead rose from 3.88% to 4.54%. This was about one percentage point higher than expectations at the start of the year – despite monetary policy expectations in general being met.
Getting your expectations right does not guarantee that you are right about the consequences.
Finn Øystein Bergh
Sjeføkonom og -strategFinn Øystein Bergh har jobbet i Pareto siden 2010, de første årene i Pareto AS før han begynte i Pareto Asset Management i 2015. Han har tidligere erfaring som journalist, sjeføkonom og senere redaksjonssjef i Kapital. Finn Øystein Bergh er utdannet siviløkonom, MBA, samfunnsøkonom og statsviter, skriver finansbloggen Paretos optimale og har utgitt flere bøker om økonomi, blant annet klassikeren Aksjeskolen. Bergh er også tidligere styremedlem i Norsif.